Derek J. Koehler | Faculty | People | Psychology

Derek J. Koehler
Professor

Recipient, Premier's Research Excellence Award

Cognitive Psychology
BS (Wisconsin), PhD (Stanford)
Phone: 519-888-4567 x35013
Fax: 519-746-8631
Office: PAS 4050
email: dkoehler@uwaterloo.ca

Research Interests

Derek J. Koehler | Psychology | University of Waterloo

My research investigates the intuitive assessment of uncertainty involved in everyday planning, prediction, and decision making. This research includes the study of how people evaluate evidence (or cues, e.g., a patient's symptoms) when estimating the probability of an uncertain event (or outcome, e.g., the patient's eventual diagnosis), how generating scenarios or explanations influences the perceived likelihood of future events, and how current intentions influence self-predictions of future behavior. In the course of this research, my collaborators and I have asked basketball fans to predict the outcomes of upcoming NBA games, physicians to judge the probability that a patient is suffering from a particular illness, homeowners to predict when they will complete a household project, and students to estimate the probability that they will donate blood at an upcoming donation clinic. Much of my recent research is located at the intersection of psychology and economics, in a field sometimes called behavioral economics.

Derek J. Koehler | Psychology | University of Waterloo

Recent Publications
(click here for complete list of downloadable articles)

Brenner, L. A., Griffin, D. W., & Koehler, D. J. (in press). A case-based model of probability and pricing judgments: Biases in buying and selling uncertainty. Management Science.

James, G., & Koehler, D. J. (2011). Banking on a bad bet: Probability matching in risky choice is linked to expectation generation. Psychological Science, 22, 707-711.

Koehler, D. J., White, R. J., & John, L. K. (2011). Good intentions, optimistic self-predictions, and missed opportunities. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 2, 90-96.

Edited Book

Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.; 2004). Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. Oxford, UK: Blackwell.

Downloadable Reprints (click for list)

CV (click for pdf)

Current Courses

Psychology 292: Basic Data Analysis (Winter 2012)

Past Courses

Psychology 207: Cognitive Processes
Psychology 304: Thinking and Deciding
Psychology 458: How the Mind Works
Psychology 458: Psychology of Economic Decisions
Psychology 650: Modelling Cognitive Processes
Psychology 776: Judgment and Decision Making

Links

New Techniques for Saving More
Are We Wrong to be Over-Optimistic?
Why Don't We Save More? (podcast interview)
Writing Wrongs
UW Centre for Behavioural Decision Research


	Derek J. Koehler Professor Recipient, Premier's Research Excellence Award Cognitive Psychology BS (Wisconsin), PhD (Stanford) Phone: 519-888-4567 x35013 Fax: 519-746-8631 Office: PAS 4050 email: dkoehler@uwaterloo.ca

Research Interests Derek J. Koehler \| Psychology \| University of Waterloo My research investigates the intuitive assessment of uncertainty involved in everyday planning, prediction, and decision making. This research includes the study of how people evaluate evidence (or cues, e.g., a patient's symptoms) when estimating the probability of an uncertain event (or outcome, e.g., the patient's eventual diagnosis), how generating scenarios or explanations influences the perceived likelihood of future events, and how current intentions influence self-predictions of future behavior. In the course of this research, my collaborators and I have asked basketball fans to predict the outcomes of upcoming NBA games, physicians to judge the probability that a patient is suffering from a particular illness, homeowners to predict when they will complete a household project, and students to estimate the probability that they will donate blood at an upcoming donation clinic. Much of my recent research is located at the intersection of psychology and economics, in a field sometimes called behavioral economics. Derek J. Koehler \| Psychology \| University of Waterloo Recent Publications (click here for complete list of downloadable articles) Brenner, L. A., Griffin, D. W., & Koehler, D. J. (in press). A case-based model of probability and pricing judgments: Biases in buying and selling uncertainty. Management Science. James, G., & Koehler, D. J. (2011). Banking on a bad bet: Probability matching in risky choice is linked to expectation generation. Psychological Science, 22, 707-711. Koehler, D. J., White, R. J., & John, L. K. (2011). Good intentions, optimistic self-predictions, and missed opportunities. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 2, 90-96. Edited Book Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.; 2004). Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. Downloadable Reprints (click for list) CV (click for pdf) Current Courses Psychology 292: Basic Data Analysis (Winter 2012) Past Courses Psychology 207: Cognitive Processes Psychology 304: Thinking and Deciding Psychology 458: How the Mind Works Psychology 458: Psychology of Economic Decisions Psychology 650: Modelling Cognitive Processes Psychology 776: Judgment and Decision Making Links New Techniques for Saving More Are We Wrong to be Over-Optimistic? Why Don't We Save More? (podcast interview) Writing Wrongs UW Centre for Behavioural Decision Research